- by Bob LeLievre, boblelievre@gmail.com, last updated 12/3/2009
Here’s an update on turnout rate vs. demographic group in Boston. This post includes info about the 2009 primary and general elections.
You may find this info useful because it difficult to find detailed information about from low turnout elections; such as off-year municipal elections and or various primary elections. You’ll find lots of data from pollster and media sources for high turnout elections, such as even-year November elections. People who know about it don’t publish it. I think this info is important because most elected officials get their start by winning one of those low turnout-elections for city council, state legislator, etc. So to win a low-turnout election, it’s very important to understand the turnout details.
Highlights:
This chart shows the distribution of votes between different age groups:
| Voter Demographic Segment |
Active Voter Count as of 11/2009 |
% of all Active Voters |
General 2009 % Turnout |
Primary 2009 % Turnout |
% of General 2009 Active Voters |
% of Primary 2009 Active Voters |
|
All Age 18 – 23 |
32,071 | 11% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 3% |
|
All Age 24 – 29 |
51,676 | 18% | 18% | 11% | 9% | 7% |
|
All Age 30 – 39 |
62,221 | 22% | 30% | 19% | 17% | 15% |
|
All Age 40 – 49 |
51,153 | 18% | 44% | 31% | 21% | 21% |
|
All Age 50 – 59 |
47,592 | 17% | 53% | 39% | 23% | 24% |
|
All Age 60 – 69 |
33,940 | 12% | 59% | 46% | 19% | 20% |
|
All Age 70 – 79 |
19,854 | 7% | 63% | 51% | 12% | 13% |
|
All Age 80 – 89 |
11,787 | 4% | 54% | 43% | 6% | 7% |
|
All Age 90+ |
2,445 | 1% | 34% | 27% | 1% | 1% |
Here’s a chart of all the raw data for 2002-2009 Boston Elections:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ArYPkyBtYlUKcDU1NW9JRndqZjBRTGlLbzZqR3l3Wmc&hl=en
- The lowest turnout age group, the 18-23 voters are 11% of all registered voters, but includes only 4% of voters who voted in the 2009 General. The highest turnout age group, the 70-79 voters are 7% of all registered voters, but includes 12% of voters of voted in the 2009 General. Putting it another way: a voter in the 70-79 age group was 5 time more likely to vote in the 2009 General as a voter in the 18-23 age group.
- Did seniors dominate the 2009 elections? I’d say “not really”. The 60+ voters are 24% of all registered voters, were 38% of the 2009 General voters, and were 41% of the 2009 Primary voters.
- Young voters in the 18-39 age group are 41% of all voters, were 31% of the 2009 General voters, and were 25% of the 2009 Primary voters.
- Middle-aged voters in the 40-59 age group are 35% of all voters, were 44% of the 2009 General voters, and were 45% of the 2009 Primary voters.
- There are significantly more female than male registered voters (55% vs. 45%) in Boston, but they voted at roughly the same rates in all age groups in the 2009 elections.
- Democrats outnumber Republicans by 58% to 6%. Unenrolled or 3rd party voters are 36% of all voters. Democrats outvoted Republicans by 42% vs. 32% in the 20o9 General, and 32% vs. 18% in the 2009 Primary.
- As always, inactive votes vote at a far lower rate than active voters (which is why I typically separate them when figuring turnout rates. Active voters outvoted inactive voters 38% vs. 3.7% in the 2009 General, and 28% vs. 2.0% in the 2009 Primary.
Below is a chart of % turnout vs. age group for the last 5 elections in Boston. This represents a range of turnouts from very low (2008 State Primary) to very high (2008 General):
Highlights:
- There is a predictable pattern here where the turnout gap between young voters and old voters is very wide (older voter is as much as 7 times more likely to vote than younger voter) when the overall turnout is very low (less than 20%). That gap gradually shrinks as overall turnout shrinks, and even disappears when the overall turnout is very high (70+%).
- In almost all cases, an age group’s turnout rate increases as the overall turnout increases. The exception to the rule is for voters aged 70+. Their turnout in the 2008 Pres. Primary (46% overall) was lower than in the 2009 General (38% overall). My guess is that these voters are a lot more familiar with local politics and politicians, and those campaigns target seniors a lot more than younger voters. Presidential candidates tend be more focused on younger voters.
Here’s a link to a previous blog post with related information about 2008 voting demographics:
http://bostonmaelections.wordpress.com/2008/12/17/boston-2008-turnout-by-demographic-groupings/
Other Notes:
- The data shown here is derived from analyzing voter lists that contain the demographic and turnout data for each individual voter. All these individual counts are from voter lists obtained on or near that election day. Individual voter turnout data is later (as it becomes available) merged back to those election day voter lists. This data allows me to make meaningful year-by-year turnout comparisons. This reveals voting patterns that can be used to create voter contact strategies for future elections, based on the expected turnout. These kinds of calculations can’t be generated from precinct-level results.
