Bob LeLievre's Blog – "The" source for Massachusetts election data

Here are some results of the 12/8/2009  Mass. Senate Primary, by Bob LeLievre (email:  boblelievre@gmail.com).  This post contains the town-by-town numbers for candidate results and turnout.  I don’t have access to detailed polling results, so I can’t offer any insight into the demographic profiles of candidates’ support.  For that, you can check out all the pundits’ opinions.  What I can do is offer some insights and highlights from poring over the raw data, something that really isn’t done in Massachusetts, or at least made public.  As always, I post all my raw number (see link below), in the interest of making public records more public and elections more transparent.

12/9/09 updates:

• Added turnout, candidate vote totals by county.
• Added statewide turnout counts for past 24 years.
• Added % of voters voting in Republican vs. Democratic primaries in past 20 years.

CANDIDATE RESULTS

Candidate Overall Results

It’s difficult to learn a lot of candidate preference details from the public results so far (the town-by-town totals).  Anyone have any polling data to share?  Otherwise, there’s nothing super interesting or insightful from just looking at these geographic  breakdowns.  The obvious observations are:  Coakley did very well among women everywhere, and that Capuano did well in his hometown of Somerville, nearby towns, and in very-liberal-voting towns.

Candidate Results by County

These results show the % of the vote each candidate received based on all turnout, not just the party primary turnout.  This is a better way to look at it because, for example, Scott Brown got an average of 90% of the vote in the Republican primary, but it made up only 20% of all voter turnout so his overall support is far lower – 18%.

• Coakley (38% overall) did best in Berkshire (56%) and Hampshire + Franklin (41%), worst in Barnstable (32%) and Suffolk (34%).
• Capuano (22% overall) did best in Franklin (37%) and Suffolk (36%), worst in Worcester (17%) and Barnstable (18%).
• Khazei (11% overall) did best in Suffolk and Norfolk (13%), worst in Hampden (5%) and Bristol (6%).
• Pagliuca (10% overall)  did best in Bristol (17%) and Hampden (14%), worst in Berkshire (5%) and Franklin (7%).
• Brown (18% overall) did best in Barnstable (26%) and Plymouth (25%), worst in Suffolk + Berkshire + Franklin (7%)
• Robinson (2%) did best in Hampden (6%), 1-3% everywhere else.
• I’m ignoring the tiny island counties here (Dukes, Nantucket).

See more county details here:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ArYPkyBtYlUKdDZlNG9Cb3RxVV9xdU1iWWZ0LWdpbEE&hl=en

Candidate Results by City/Town

The link below shows candidate results in each of the 351 Mass. cities/towns:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ArYPkyBtYlUKdHFHekUteDlwWFpPdGxEZGRzNlhxN1E&hl=en

The Boston Globe has a chart that shows the best and worst town results for each candidate:

http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2009/senate_primary/dem_top_bottom_towns.html

http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2009/senate_primary/gop_top_bottom_towns.html

TURNOUT RESULTS

Statewide Turnout Results:

• Total Voter Turnout =826,901
• Registered Voter Count = 4.22 million
• % Turnout = 19.6%
• Democratic Primary Turnout = 664,195 (80% of all turnout)
• Republican Primary Turnout = 162,706 (20% of all turnout)
• Party Registration Rates (37% Democratic, 12% Republican, 51% Unenrolled/Other)

How does this turnout compare with other state-wide elections?  See the chart below that shows turnout over the last 25 years.  Turnout is typically driven by:

• What kind of election:  Presidential races bring out the highest, followed by statewide  (governor, senator, ballot questions, etc.), followed by regional (congressional), followed by local/legislative (state senate, state rep, mayor, city council, etc.)
• Generals bring out a lot more than primaries.  When the primary is very contested and the general is relatively uncontested, the generalturnout usually is only somewhat higher than the primary turnout.
• Competitiveness – contested races bring out more voters than uncontested races.  Compare the 2004 and 2008 Presidential Primaries – 2008 turnout was 1.9 million where the nomination was up for grabs vs. a 2004 turnout of 700K when John Kerry had more-or-less already clinched the nomination.  If your vote doesn’t matter, you are more likely to stay home.
• The lowest turnout is in September state primaries of presidential election years (2008, 2004, etc.).  Here the primaries are largely made up of uncontested state senate and state rep races, which draw little interest.  Occasionally there is a contested open congressional seat that boosts turnout in that district.

This 2009 Senate Primary is the first special statewide election in a long time, so there’s no similar election to make a direct comparison.    This election had a turnout similar to contested September state primaries (2006,2002, 1998, etc.) where there are choices for Governor, Attorney General, Treasurer, etc.

Turnout of Voters in Republican Primaries

The chart below shows what % of voters are voting in Republican vs. Democratic in statewide primaries going back 20 years.  Democrats have long outnumbered Republicans in Massachusetts, although both are losing ground to Unenrolled voters, who can choose to vote in either primary.  Currently, the party counts are 37% Democratic, 12% Republican, 51% Unenrolled/Other.

The % of all voters choosing to vote in the Republican primary can be a sign of strength of Republican candidates.  If one party has contested elections and the other doesn’t, the turnout jumps for the party with the contested elections.  Some examples:

• In the 2006 State Primary, the Democratic side was driven by a contested Governor election driven by Deval Patrick vs. not much going on in the Republican primary, resulting in only 8% of all voters voting Republican.
• In the 2002 State Primary, the Republican side had Romney running a strong campaign unopposed vs. a contested governor race on the Democratic side , resulting in 25% of all voters voting Republican.

Scott Brown, running pretty much unopposed against a weak opponent (Robinson), getting 20% is a decent result for Republicans.

Turnout Results by County:

• Turnout rates by county varied from 13% to 26%.
• The highest turnout rates were in Barnstable (26%), Norfolk (24%), and Middlesex (24%).
• The lowest turnout rates were in Hampden (12%), Bristol (13%), and WWorcester (16%).

Here’s a chart of more county details:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ArYPkyBtYlUKdDZlNG9Cb3RxVV9xdU1iWWZ0LWdpbEE&hl=en

Highest Town Turnouts:

• Norfolk – 43%
• Harvard – 41%
• Needham – 40%
• Concord – 36%
• Sherborn, Arlington – 35%
• Monroe, Belmont, Chilmark – 34%

Lowest Town Turnouts:

• Rehoboth, Hinsdale, Winchendon, Lawrence, Gosnold – 9%
• New Marlborough, Lanesborough, Swansea, Russell, Seekonk, Peru, Springfield, Holland, Savoy – 10%

Highest Rate of Voters voting in Democratic Primary:

• Pelham – 99%
• Provincetown, Aquinnah – 98%
• Cambridge – 97%
• Amherst, Leverett, North Adams, Shutesbury, Somerville – 96%
• Mount Washington, Colrain, Northampton – 95%

Highest Rate of Voters voting in Republican Primary:

• Wrentham – 54%
• North Attleborough – 51%
• Plainville – 47%
• Tolland – 46%
• Norfolk – 44%
• Oakham – 42%
• Rehoboth – 41%

Here are the town-by-town results and raw data:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ArYPkyBtYlUKdHFHekUteDlwWFpPdGxEZGRzNlhxN1E&hl=en

This spreadsheet includes:

• Vote count per candidate per town
• % of the vote per candidate per town vs. votes in the party primary
• % of the vote per candidate per town vs. all voter turnout
• % turnout per town
• Rates of voters who voted in Democratic Primary, Republican Primary