Bob LeLievre's Blog – "The" source for Massachusetts election data

There are no official exit polls made available to the public, to the lament of many:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/19/massachusetts-exit-polls_n_428655.html

But there were a couple of polls done on or near election day that give us some final insight:

AFL-CIO poll of 810 voters on election night:

http://www.aflcio.org/issues/politics/upload/mass_elections.pdf

Highlights:

• There was a 15 point gender gap:  men by +13 points for Brown vs. women by +2 points for Coakley.
• College grads were +5 points for Coakley, non-college voters were +20 points for Brown.  It’s not clear if “non-college” means not a college grad, or did not attend college at all.  I’d guess not attending at all.
• Union members voted for Brown 49% vs. Coakley 46%.
• Brown’s personal rating:  51% positive vs. 32% negative (net +19 points).
• Coakley’s personal rating:  40% positive vs. 37% negative (net +3 points).
• Lots of issue-related numbers too.

MoveOn.org poll on election night of of 2774 Obama voters who did vote and 500 Obama voters who did not vote:

http://act.boldprogressives.org/cms/sign/mapollresults/

Highlights of Obama voters who voted in senate election:

• 82% voted for Coakley, 18% voted for Brown.

Highlights of Obama voters who did not voter in senate election:

• Question:  Who did a better job representing you on economic issues?  Answer:  Coakley = 26%, Brown = 9%, Neither = 65%.
• Question:  Is Obama delivering on campaign promise change?  Answer: Yes = 37%, No = 49%, Not Sure = 14%.
• Lots of issue-related numbers too.

Also, a Public Policy Institute Poll of 1231 likely voters on 1/16 and 1/17  that had Brown leading 51% to 46% (very close to the actual result):

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_117468963846.pdf

Highlights:

• Among Democrats:  Coakley = 77%, Brown = 19%
• Among Republicans:  Brown = 90%, Coakley = 8%
• Among Independents:  Brown = 64%, Coakley = 32%
• Voter excitment level = very excited:  Democrats = 63%, Republicans = 89%, Independents = 68%
• Voter Race:
  • Whites:  Brown = 54%, Coakley = 42%
  • African-Americans:  Coakley = 77%, Brown = 19%
  • Other:  Coakley = 61%, Brown = 35%

Other Polling Results:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/fivethityeight-still-rating.html

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/massachusetts/election_2010_massachusetts_special_senate_election

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/19/massachusetts-exit-polls_n_428655.html

Notes:

• Independent voters are unaffiliated with any political party and are about 51% of all registered voters.  They are officially labeled “unenrolled”.  They used to be “independents”, but in the not-too-recent past, there was a new, small, obscure political party that called themselves the “American Independent Party”.  So unaffiliated voters changed from Independent to Unenrolled.