Here’s my take on the numbers.
Marty Walsh won a close election over John Connolly by 3.5 points. He did it by getting 70% of the vote in Dorchester, about 60% of the vote in high-minority neighborhoods, and running even in diverse, liberal-voting neighborhoods. Overall turnout was 38%, good but not great. Individual neighborhood turnout rates were similar to most previous local elections – white, conservative-voting neighborhoods turned out better than liberal-voting and non-white neighborhoods.
Table # 1 below shows the candidate and turnout results by neighborhood, along with the % of white residents age 18+ from the 2010 Census, all tabulated from precinct results. There are also numbers for the smaller sub-neighborhoods of Dorchester.