Bob LeLievre's Blog – "The" source for Massachusetts election data

January 22, 2010

Update # 5 – 2010 Mass. Senate General – Boston Results

Here are some details of the Boston results.  Boston is by far the largest city in Massachusetts and I’ve been tracking election results there for 20+ years.  This is useful because I can really drill down into neighborhood demographics to make candidate and turnout observations, since most Boston neighborhoods can be clearly-defined by racial make-up and by historical patterns of turnout rates and candidate ideology support (liberal vs. moderate vs. conservative).

Boston numbers reinforce what we already know:

  • The strongest Democratic base (non-white voters) voted very strongly for Coakley, but turnout (ie – voter excitement) was relatively low.  Message to Democratic Party operative:  Don’t ignore your base – Push for turnout in these communities – Democratic candidates will get 90+% of the votes here!
  • Moderate-voting white voters  had lukewarm support for Coakley, voters that she needed to win.
Below is a chart that summarizes the neighborhood data.  Here’s link to a spreadsheet with full neighborhood details:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tM21Wvf03LSOOKZNXF6SeJA&output=html

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Update # 4 – 2010 Mass. Senate General – Poll Summary

There are no official exit polls made available to the public, to the lament of many:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/19/massachusetts-exit-polls_n_428655.html

But there were a couple of polls done on or near election day that give us some final insight:

AFL-CIO poll of 810 voters on election night:

http://www.aflcio.org/issues/politics/upload/mass_elections.pdf

Highlights:

  • There was a 15 point gender gap:  men by +13 points for Brown vs. women by +2 points for Coakley.
  • College grads were +5 points for Coakley, non-college voters were +20 points for Brown.  It’s not clear if “non-college” means not a college grad, or did not attend college at all.  I’d guess not attending at all.
  • Union members voted for Brown 49% vs. Coakley 46%.
  • Brown’s personal rating:  51% positive vs. 32% negative (net +19 points).
  • Coakley’s personal rating:  40% positive vs. 37% negative (net +3 points).
  • Lots of issue-related numbers too.

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